“Close elections are about momentum, and the momentum in Florida is moving in the direction of the Republican Party right now,” Republican National Committee political director Rick Wiley said. “In spite of its nickname, the Sunshine State looks awfully cloudy for Obama and may very well rain on his parade in November.”

Polls this far out mean little, however. At this point four years ago, Obama trailed McCain by double digits in Florida and many observers questioned whether he would even compete here if he won the Democratic nomination.

Last week the Times poll showed Romney leading Obama by four points in Florida, while an NBC News/Marist poll had Obama leading by eight points. But independents and swing voters tend to decide elections in Florida, and they also tend to make up their minds late.

“I think the Republican National Committee learned from McCain when he put Florida in the safe column after he clinched the nomination,” said Republican strategist Slater Bayliss. “I don’t think anyone is going to put Florida in the safe column this time.”

In the last five presidential elections, Republicans won twice, Democrats won twice, and 2000 was essentially a tie.

“If it’s a close election nationally it may be within one point in Florida,’’ said Tallahassee-based Democratic strategist Steve Schale, who ran Obama’s Florida campaign in 2008. “When push comes to shove, if the race is that close you can’t underestimate the organizational advantage president Obama will have in Florida.”

While few people are watching, the Obama organization every day is building the capacity for a massive volunteer-driven campaign built around an ever-growing number of volunteer neighborhood teams reaching out to neighbors and friends. Whether it’s Spanish language phone banks, nearly 200 State of the Union parties across the state, organizing African-American supporters in beauty salons and barber shops, volunteer training, or recruiting volunteers via Facebook or Twitter, the campaign sets goals for everybody on the campaign and measures results constantly.

“You have to have a three-pronged approach. There’s a voter registration component, there’s a persuasion opponent, and there’s a get-out-the-vote component,” said Walker, the state director, dismissing the suggestion that Democrats won’t be as enthusiastic as they were four years ago.

“I fundamentally disagree with the premise that there’s a lack of passion. I wouldn’t be seeing the reports that come across my desk each day, and the number of volunteer team leaders we have, and the number of core team members we have if there was an enthusiasm problem.”

Team Obama re-wrote the grass roots campaign playbook for winning Florida four years ago, but the approach in 2012 is considerably different. Not only has the technology and ability to organize on social media advanced, but in an ever-changing state like Florida, the electorate and the avenues of opportunity are shifting as well.

Schale, for instance, pointed to three Orlando-area counties with fast-rising Puerto Rican populations. In 1996, Orange, Osceola and Seminole counties made up about 7.4 of the statewide vote, and while winning the state comfortably, Bill Clinton lost those three counties by 12,000 votes. In 2008, those counties made up about 9.2 percent of the statewide vote and gave Obama a 100,000-plus vote margin of victory.

Obama has several paths for winning the needed 270 electorate votes without winning Florida, but no Republican since Calvin Coolidge has won the presidency without winning Florida.

Brett Doster, who ran Romney’s successful primary campaign this year, expects Republicans to be much better prepared to compete in Florida, but he holds no illusions about the strength of the Obama campaign.

“I don’t think by any stretch of the imagination it’s going to be an easy campaign for Romney,” Doster said. “Obama is going to have a tougher time than he had it last time, and I think Romney’s the guy to make it tougher. But they’re going to pull out all the stops to win here, and this is going to be battleground central.”