The world’s second-largest cruise ship company on Thursday reported increased profits in 2011 and a promising start to the new year — until the Costa Concordia wreck in Italy scared off new reservations.

Partially due to the recent drop in bookings and uncertainty about future recovery, Royal Caribbean Cruises released an earnings forecast Thursday that fell short of analysts’ expectations.

In the two weeks after the Jan. 13 grounding and capsizing that left at least 17 dead, booking volumes for all brands combined plummeted 20 percent compared to a year earlier, executives said. Within the last five days, that’s improved, with volumes down by percentages that ranged from the low to mid-teens compared to a year earlier. Most affected are spring and summer cruises.

Bookings from North America have fared better than those from Europe due to the constant spotlight on the wreck off the coast of Tuscany. Fifteen people are still missing and presumed dead, and the ship could remain partially submerged for months.

Despite the negative impact on future bookings, Miami-based Royal Caribbean said cancellations have not increased beyond normal levels, and the company said it has not lowered prices to spur demand. After suspending marketing campaigns in the wake of the disaster, the company is advertising again during the busiest booking season of the year.

“We just don’t think this is going to have a long-lasting impact,” said Richard D. Fain, chairman and CEO of Royal Caribbean Cruises, in a conference call with analysts Thursday. “It’s obviously having a near-term impact, and that’s obviously painful, and it also has an emotional impact and that’s painful, too. As a practical matter, we think people understand that cruising is safe.”

Costa is an Italy-based line owned by Carnival Corp., which is based in Miami. Carnival said this week that booking volumes had declined by percentages “in the mid-teens.” Full-year profits are expected to take a $155 million-$175 million hit, Carnival said.

Royal Caribbean leaders discussed the toll the incident was taking on their business after they released earnings for the fourth quarter of 2011 and full-year results. The parent company includes Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises, Azamara Club Cruises, Pullmantur, and CDF Croisières de France.

The company reported profits of $36.6 million in the fourth quarter, up from $31.9 million the year before. Revenues increased from $1.6 billion in the last quarter of 2010 to $1.8 billion in 2011.

For all of 2011, net income rose to $607.4 million from $515.7 million a year earlier. Revenues increased from $6.8 billion in 2010 to $7.5 billion in 2011.

Before the accident, booking volumes were about five percent ahead of the same time a year ago at higher prices. “We had great pricing momentum coming into this year,” Fain said. “Much better than I believe folks were expecting.”

But considering uncertainty revolving around the continued impact on bookings of the Costa wreck, fuel prices, and currency exchange rates, Royal Caribbean predicted full-year earnings between $1.90 and $2.30 per share.

That’s lower than the $2.97 estimated by analysts, the average of 30 surveyed by Bloomberg News. Royal Caribbean stock closed at $28.69 Thursday, up 1.59 percent.

Analysts agreed that the fallout from the disaster would likely not be long-lasting.