Talk about a possible DREAM Act nightmare.

The Republican who said he’d veto the pro-immigrant legislation as president, Mitt Romney, is winning the likely Hispanic vote by 16 percentage points in a theoretical matchup against President Barack Obama in our latest Florida poll.

Romney’s 53-37 percent Latino lead over Obama has emboldened Republicans, who gleefully play up the president’s relatively tepid support among Hispanics. Yet Romney might not have an edge at all due to the size of the poll’s margin of error.

Democrats said they doubted the poll’s finding, pointing to other surveys showing Obama would win Latinos in Florida by double-digit margins. Another survey shows Obama and Romney running neck-and-neck.

Questionable logic

Regardless, the fluctuations cast some doubt on the conventional logic of the political consulting class: Hispanics want open borders, most Republicans don’t — so Obama will win Latinos.

Nothing ruins a campaign’s political theory like an actual campaign. And Romney is campaigning, on Spanish radio and TV. Also, few states test campaigns like Florida, where the Hispanic vote is far from monolithic.

“Immigration plays differently down here because the bulk of our Hispanic population is Cuban and Puerto Rican,” said Brad Coker, the Jacksonville-based Mason Dixon Research & Associates pollster who conducted the survey for The Miami Herald/Tampa Bay Times and others.

“Cubans have asylum. Puerto Ricans are citizens. They’re not worried about immigration authorities kicking down their door,” Coker said.

Employment is Job One

Overlooked amid the loud immigration debate: Every major poll shows Hispanics are most concerned about jobs. Latino unemployment is higher than the national and state averages of 8.5 percent and 9.9 percent, respectively.

“To quote Bill Clinton: It’s the economy, stupid,” said U.S. Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, a Miami Republican and Romney backer.

Diaz-Balart is a co-sponsor of the DREAM Act, first designed to help children who live illegally in this country. It also provides a pathway to citizenship for those who go to college or join the military.

Critics, namely Republicans, say the proposal goes too far, has too many loopholes and would provide too much amnesty.

Diaz-Balart said Obama promised comprehensive immigration reform, but nothing happened when Democrats controlled Congress for the first half of Obama’s term.

The GOP strategy

The Republican experience has been even worse. The issue of immigration consumed the party in 2006, and helped push Hispanics in droves toward Democrats.

Republicans don’t need to win Hispanic voters outright — just take enough from Obama to weaken his base. As it grows in size and influence, the Hispanic vote will only become more highly sought in the state and nation.

The immigration debate is about tone as well as policy. It takes nuance. Especially for Republicans. Lines like making “English the official language” prompt applause in North Florida, but triggers tough questions in Miami, where even loudspeakers in some grocery stores are all-Spanish, all the time.

Republicans have to explain themselves, sometimes literally in two languages as if they’re talking out of both corners of their mouths to court Miami-Dade GOP voters, 72 percent of whom are Hispanic.