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CAMPAIGN 2012 | FLORIDA PRIMARY

Republican fight arrives in Florida — Newt’s momentum vs. Mitt’s organization

 

The Florida primary appears to be a race between Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney. Romney has the edge — for now.

Tampa Bay Times

And then there was Rick Santorum, who came in third in South Carolina but was the first candidate to campaign in Florida on Sunday, stumping in Broward County.

“There’s going to be a lot of missiles flying here in the next 10 days, and our hope is to keep our head down a little bit and run the kind of campaign that you saw four years ago, when John McCain came down here. He didn’t spend a whole lot of money.”

Santorum’s first stop was the Worldwide Christian Center, a predominately black church in Pompano Beach. He spoke to the congregation about family and moral values, religion, and — on what was the 29th anniversary of the landmark Roe vs. Wade case — his longstanding pro-life stance on abortion.

At a rally in Coral Springs organized by Broward County Republicans, Santorum talked about the Middle East, health care, global warming, and government bailouts. Throughout the day, he criticized Gingrich as too erratic, and Romney as not conservative enough.

“Florida can now step back and say, ‘OK, who do we want? Who is the candidate that we should, here in Florida, put our stamp of approval on?’ ” Santorum said to supporters in Coral Springs.

At the moment, it’s a race between Gingrich and Romney, a struggle between momentum and organization.

Romney still has the advantage.

He is well known to Florida voters, having come in second to John McCain in the 2008 primary and has visited the state often since then, even before declaring himself a candidate. He has the backing of some of the state’s most influential Republicans.

While Gingrich is just getting started, Romney’s Florida volunteers began knocking on doors in September. The Romney campaign and its allies have been on TV for weeks, spending $7 million so far, including $4 million attacking Gingrich.

Romney’s team was worried last week when Gingrich went on Spanish language radio with an ad attacking his rival as “the most anti-immigrant candidate.” But the ad buy was relatively small, highlighting the financial disadvantage.

Gingrich during his victory speech Saturday seemed to underscore his weaknesses by asking anyone in the crowd to reach out to people in Florida. But campaign officials in the state said the ground game is more solid than it appears. There are chairs in all 67 counties and 5,000 volunteers on the ground.

“I’d rather them underestimate our abilities. But we’re working hard. We’re targeting these voters,” said Florida state director Jose Mallea. He said phone banking has targeted absentee and early voters, which Romney has aggressively courted.

As many as 200,000 people are estimated to have cast ballots already. Still, that is only about 10 percent of the overall number of voters who turned out in the 2008 primary.

Gingrich has also seen donations pour in since Saturday night, announcing midday Sunday that he had exceeded a $1 million goal for a “knockout punch in Florida.” The campaign expects to be advertising on TV early this week.

Gingrich, Romney, Santorum and Ron Paul, who is bypassing Florida to focus on other states, will appear Monday night in a debate sponsored by the Tampa Bay Times, NBC News, National Journal and the Florida Council of 100.

While early on Romney benefitted from steady performances, the field has narrowed and Gingrich’s anti-media, populist anger has been to his advantage. A second debate comes Thursday in Jacksonville.

“Any time you turn Newt loose he is capable of either coming out like he did in South Carolina or screwing up so bad he can’t ever get it back,” said Tom Slade, former head of the Republican Party of Florida. “I’ve never looked forward to a time in politics as exciting as this is now and it’s all about Newt.”

Tampa Bay Times political editor Adam C. Smith and Miami Herald reporter Clark Spencer contributed to this report, which includes information from McClatchy News Service.

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