Since the fall of the Soviet Union, a number of government transitions from totalitarian systems to more democratic forms of government have taken place. Last year, dictators tumbled one by one during the “Arab Spring.”

Now, as Pope Benedict XVI prepares to visit Cuba in March, Catholic leaders are calling the trip a “springtime of faith” for reconciliation among Cubans without government interference. Many on both sides of the Straits of Florida yearn for a Cuban spring.

Post-communist Eastern Europe offers lessons about the complexities of a transition beyond political and economic changes. The impact of such changes on the individual and each person’s ability to adapt are crucial. Seldom taken into consideration: the needs of a country in transition often clash with the psychological needs of its citizens.

The first challenge is to meet people’s basic needs for food, shelter, jobs, education and healthcare. Another consideration: Many of these government transitions have been influenced by the ages and experiences of citizens in both old and new systems.

In Change Forces in Post-communist Eastern Europe, focusing on changes in post-communist Eastern Europe, four principles emerge as essential to understand the dynamics of a social transformation:

•  Systems in transition are typically characterized by the coexistence of the old and new structures, values and attitudes.

• The emergent new system may have a few common elements with the old order.

• The wider apart the old and new systems are initially, the more difficult the transition process will be for its citizens.

• As the old state begins to transform, the human needs of its citizens have to be addressed immediately by the state or the transformation to a new society may collapse.

Since Raúl Castro took over from his ailing brother Fidel in 2006, he has introduced economic reforms with the intent of improving the island nation’s dire economic situation and the living conditions of its people.

Reforms seek to have Cubans be self-sufficient, by allowing them to own property and businesses, and produce their own food and free themselves of government dependency. The results have been very limited.

After 53 years of indoctrinating people to believe that the country is more important than the individual, the process of “change” in Cuba will not be easy. People who have lived under totalitarian systems for long periods of time have developed a set of values and attitudes that define their daily behavior to abide by the state’s rules.

Many Cubans distrust the authorities. They live in a “culture of fear.” Their behavior is dominated by grim realities — lack of food, poor transportation, political rhetoric, lack of information and so forth.

Learning and adopting new values, beliefs and norms won’t work — unless immediate personal improvement and hope for a better future can be guaranteed. Post-transition studies in Central and Eastern Europe showed that many of these changes caused problems ranging from demoralization to severe trauma.

According to Roberto Veiga Gonzalez, editor of the Catholic magazine in Cuba Espacio Laical (Space for Laity), “Cuba needs to undergo an intense process of adjustment, reform or change . . . these transformations must be deep and wide, if we want to take the country out of its current condition. These needed changes should include the renewal of the economic, social, legal and political structures, as well as creating the individual person as a citizen.”

Of Cuba’s 11 million people, about eight million were born after the start of the Cuban revolution in 1959 — two million of them born after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. This young group has limited knowledge about the intent of the revolution. They are beginning to reject the state’s indoctrination, yet they fear the lack of opportunity they may encounter in the future.

Race is another important factor. Sixty-five percent of the island’s population is Afro-Cuban. This was one of the social groups to whom the revolution promised a better life, but for most that hasn’t happened. Also, remittances from the exile community mainly benefit Cuba’s white population.

This creates a greater social divide between both groups, which may also cause racial tensions.

Through the simple introduction of economic reforms — coupled with the lack of political reforms — Raúl Castro’s government will not be able to sustain a successful transition.

Andy Gomez is a senior fellow and assistant provost at the Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies at the University of Miami.