But the insurance loss could be $500 million to $1 billion, depending on liability claims, exceeding the loss from the Exxon Valdez disaster including pollution, said Joy Ferneyhough, an insurance analyst at Espirito Santo Investment Bank.

Carnival said it expects others costs to its business that are “not possible to determine at this time.”

Cash costs, excluding the capital cost of the ship, probably won’t exceed $1 billion, which Carnival should be able to withstand, said Wyn Ellis, an analyst at Numis Securities in London who reduced his recommendation on the stock to “hold” from “add.”

“Consumer sentiment soon recovers following such tragic events, and we do not expect there to be long-term negative consequences for demand,” Ellis said. “Tragic accidents happen with greater frequency and, sadly, often greater loss of life, in the aviation and rail industry and this does not prevent people using these modes of transport.”

At least one Miami lawyer voiced skepticism over Costa’s blaming the accident completely on the captain, calling it a combination of defensive public relations and pre-litigation maneuvering.

“There’s a big reason they immediately want to dump on the captain,” said attorney Mike Eidson, a Coral Gables personal injury attorney who has litigated against Carnival and others for decades. “First, they want to protect the industry and show that this is an isolated case. They need people to believe cruising is safe and this is a freak incident caused by the carelessness of one person.

“Why didn’t the ship have modern safety equipment to provide a failsafe back-up?” he said. “There’s no way that it’s acceptable for them to blame this on one person. They’re trying to escape punitive damages.”

Foschi said that because the captain manually reset the course, none of the ship’s normal alarms sounded alerting anyone to rocks along the shore.

Several South Florida attorneys agreed that based on the standard Costa cruise ticket, passengers on the Concordia will likely have to file any lawsuits in Genoa, where the cases will be subject to Italian law.

“The law there is very favorable for victims,” said Charles Lipcon, a Miami attorney who specializes in maritime law and has already been retained to represent some of the crew of the Concordia.

“In some cases, they can get more money there than in the U.S.”

At issue will be whether the courts agree to uphold the stipulation in the Costa cruise ticket limiting the carrier’s liability to about $70,900, based on what is known as the Athens Convention.

One way to get around this limit will be proving the carrier acted recklessly or intentionally, said Bob Peltz, a Miami maritime attorney with Leesfield and Partners, also an officer with the National Maritime Law Association.

“It seems if you run into a stationary object, that might take it out of basic negligence and put it in the area of recklessness,” Peltz said.

Miami Herald Business Editor Jane Wooldridge and Bloomberg News contributed to this report.