Greg Cote

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In My Opinion

Greg Cote’s NFL Playoff Week 1 picks

 

gcote@miamiherald.com

We sally into the playoffs off what I’d call a pretty successful 2011 regular season — better than last year but also standing up stoutly against our record over 21 seasons picking NFL games in The Miami Herald. Not bragging so much about our overall .621 winning percentage; that ranks only 14th on our career ledger. But the .547 mark against the spread (which matters most to me) checks in No. 3 all-time, so on that I’ll brag a bit if you’ll pardon me. (Or even if you won’t). My only better seasons ATS were a .574 from 1991 and a .551 from 2009. Now, though, the slate is wiped clean and I’m back to 0-0 as the postseason begins, in search of my first perfect 11-0 playoff record. A man can dream, can he not?

OverallPct.Vs. spreadPct.
Week 11-5.6886-7-3.462
Season159-97.621127-105-24.547
Final 2010156-100.609122-121-13.502

BENGALS (9-7) at TEXANS (10-6)

Line: HOU by 3

Cote’s pick: HOU 24-20

TV: 4:30 p.m. Saturday, NBC

This one opens the NFL’s Wild-Card Weekend quartet of games, and you could call it (though neither team would) the Just Happy To Be Here Bowl, with Texans (No. 3 seed; South champ) making their first-ever playoff appearance and Bengals (No. 6; second wild card) hoping for that club’s first postseason victory since 1990. This also will be first playoff game started by two rookie QBs in Cincy’s Andy Dalton and Houston’s T.J. Yates. Texans needed a scoring pass with two seconds left to win at Cincy 20-19 in Week 14, and Houston stumbles into these playoffs off three consecutive losses. Give Cincy a medium upset shot, but take the home team to get its mojo back here. Like Texans’ defense, especially at home. Also love-love-love that Arian Foster/Ben Tate ground game against a ’Gals run D that got whomped for 228 rushing yards by Baltimore last week.

STEELERS (12-4) at BRONCOS (8-8)

Line: PIT by 8 1/2

Cote’s pick: PIT 20-16

TV: 4:30 p.m. Sunday, CBS

Sunday’s late game hinges on the lower hinge we’ll call Ben Roethlisberger’s gimpy ankle, but maybe not as much as you’d think. Pitt will need Big Ben at full strength going forward, but the Steelers (No. 5 seed; first wild card) can get by here on a dominating defense that should swamp Denver (No. 4; West champ) and its fraud QB, Tim Tebow. Broncs were last in playoffs in 2005, don’t deserve to be here now — 8-8!? C’mon, man! — and shall be summarily bounced. (Odd side note: As a precaution, safety Ryan Clark won’t play for Steelers because he carries sickle cell trait and after his last game in Denver’s high altitude in ‘07 he lost 40 pounds and had to have his gallbladder and spleen removed). Pitt also will be missing top RB Rashard Mendenhall to season-ending injury. Do not see Steelers losing but see it closer than the bet line in what should be a points-shy affair.

FIRST-ROUND BYES

PATRIOTS (13-3)

New England (No. 1 seed; East champ) has earned home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs and next Saturday (8 p.m.) will host this weekend’s lower-seeded conference survivor. That will be the Bengals, if they win, or otherwise the Steelers-Broncos winner.

RAVENS (12-4)

Baltimore (No. 2 seed; North champ) will be the home team next Sunday (1 p.m.) vs. this weekend’s higher-seeded AFC survivor. That will be the Texans, if they win, or otherwise the Steelers-Broncos winner.

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