Greg Cote

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In My Opinion

Separating the playoff contenders from pretenders

 

gcote@MiamiHerald.com

We’d play touch football as kids and the game plan basically was, “Everybody go deep.” You run a curl around the fire hydrant, you cut left at the Chevy Nova, and you stop-and-go at the Feinbaums’ mailbox … ON THREE! Nobody ran the ball in our games. The only player who really mattered was the guy throwing. And defense is what you did to kill time until you were on offense again. Sort of like the NFL, now.

I cannot remember a season quite like this, or a playoffs quite like the ones commencing this weekend.

The three clearly best teams — Packers, Patriots and Saints, one of them seeming sure to win the Super Bowl — all have lopsidedly pass-oriented offenses powerful enough to overcome defenses (their own) that are mediocre at best, and often not that good.

The old Bill Parcells school of thought, that running and defense are the recipe for winning, looks as outmoded this season as a manual typewriter sitting next to an iPad.

Green Bay, New England and New Orleans had no running back rank better than 27th in the league in rushing. The Packers are the consensus Super Bowl betting favorite, and if you can name their leading rusher you probably live in Milwaukee or have worn a foam cheese hat in the past month. (Answer: James Starks).

With that as a backdrop, we rank the 12 playoffs teams based on our estimation of the likelihood each will win the Super Bowl:

1. Patriots: This isn’t saying New Engand is the best team, necessarily, but that the Pats have a far easier path to the Feb. 5 Super Bowl in Indianapolis through the weaker AFC. The NFC already is a 4  1/2-point SB betting favorite based on that conference’s superiority and depth, but that also means the chances the Packers and Saints might beat each other makes either less likely to reach Indy than Tom Brady.

2. Packers: The defending champion are the sixth team to win at least 15 games in a regular season, but the previous three to do so — 2007 Patriots, ’04 Steelers and 1998 Vikings — failed to win the Super Bowl. I like Pack’s chances to repeat mainly because Lambeau in January is such an extraordinary home-field edge. They’ll need that, because the next team on my list is a better team right now.

3. Saints: The Cajuns have won eight games in a row. Oh, and you may have heard: Drew Brees is having the greatest season any QB has ever had. The home field earned by the above two teams is all that tips it.

4. Ravens: Baltimore, unlike the above three, have old-school balance on offense and play old-school, bent-nose defense. So does San Francisco. But the Niners have to climb up and over two better teams in the NFC, while the Ravens only have one clear hurdle in their conference.

5. 49ers: It isn’t that I can’t picture the formerly maligned Alex Smith in the role of winning playoff quarterback. I just don’t think this is a team that can outscore Aaron Rodgers or Brees.

6. Falcons: Call Atlanta my dark horse, not as in Super Bowl-worthy, but as in upsetting the Giants this weekend and proving itself largely underestimated.

7. Steelers: They’d rank a spot or two higher if Ben Roethlisberger were healthy, but his ankle isn’t right. That won’t stop Pittsburgh this weekend, but it might beyond that.

8. Texans: First time in the playoffs, three straight losses, untested T.J. Yates at QB, Andre Johnson not yet 100 percent. That’s a lot to overcome.

9. Giants: Can’t rank ’em much higher if I have them losing to Atlanta this weekend, now can I? Pass defense is a bad weakness to have when the Packers/Saints are in your way.

10. Lions: Detroit’s pass-D is worse than New York’s, plus the Lions are postseason newbies with the toughest first-round draw.

11. Bengals: Cincy could be slotted a bit higher if only because I give them a real shot of winning at Houston, but this is not a special team. Closer to Dolphins-like.

12. Broncos: Denver is only the fifth team and first in nine years to make the playoffs are starting 2-5 or worse. Well, the luck stops here. Broncs only won their division because everybody else was worse, and Tim Tebow is the Pet Rock of the NFL, a fad hurtling toward obsolescence.

• OK, that’s based on championship likelihood. My preseason Super Bowl pick was Eagles over Steelers (let’s move on quickly), but hitting the reset button now, I’ll make it Patriots over Saints.

Now let’s switch from talent to sentiment.

Our 2011 league award winners, briefly: MVP — tie, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers and Saints QB Drew Brees; Offensive POY — Brees; Defensive POY — Ravens LB Terrell Suggs; Offensive rookie — Panthers QB Cam Newton; Defensive rookie — 49ers LB Aldon Smith; Coach of year — 49ers’ Jim Harbaugh; and Dolphins MVP — QB Matt Moore.

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