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ECONOMY

Hiring rebound expected to continue

 

Washington releases the final jobs report for 2011 on Friday. Strong numbers would suggest South Florida’s slow recovery will continue into 2012.

dhanks@MiamiHerald.com

If the economic tea leaves are correct, Friday morning should bring another dose of positive jobs news for the United States. That would bode well for South Florida’s ongoing hiring rebound.

Nationwide, employers added 325,000 jobs last month, according to calculations by ADP, the country’s top payroll company. Though not a surefire predictor of the official government data being released at 8:30 a.m., the ADP report suggests momentum is building behind the nation’s economic recovery.

“Things are all kind of coming together right now in terms of good news, and I think that’s allowing for a little more restocking of labor,” said Jonathan Basile, an economist at Credit Suisse in New York. “There’s been a sustainable increase in demand behind this, and that’s generally what gets employers to hire more people.”

At CareerXchange, a South Florida employment firm, thinly staffed businesses have been requesting temporary workers to fill slots left open during the recession, said president Sue Romanos.

“Any increase in business has them in a position where they really need people to step in quickly,’’ she said. “Business was very good in the fourth quarter. We had to hire temporary workers ourselves.”

Florida releases countywide December jobs data later this month, so the national report will only hint at what’s in store for Broward and Miami-Dade. Still, a strong report out of Washington could preview more progress on the local hiring front.

Among the encouraging trends:

•  Falling unemployment: In June, unemployment hit a record 13.4 percent in Miami-Dade. But in the latest report, the county’s unemployment had fallen to 10.2 percent. It was the sharpest drop in the jobless rate since at least 1980, and in line with the declines seen during recoveries from recessions in the early 80s and 90s.

Broward’s unemployment rate has been more stubborn, though in November it finally dropped below 9 percent for the first time since April 2009.

For sure, some of the gains come thanks to a slow economy. South Florida’s labor force has been slow to expand, a sign that people feel too pessimistic about their hiring prospects to resume their job hunting. With a constrained labor force, small bursts of hiring create larger dips in the unemployment rate than would occur when the pool of job seekers is growing.

“Yes there are jobs being created,’’ said Sean Snaith, an economist at the University of Central Florida. “But we still have the problem of the discouraged worker.”

•  Increased job security: One of the reports that encouraged economists this week is the Labor Department’s announcement that nationwide claims for initial unemployment benefits remain below 400,000. That’s considered a healthy sign.

Locally, first-time claims have been dropping sharply each month. In Broward, about 5,000 people filed for their first unemployment benefits last month, down 25 percent from a year ago. The rate of decline was 27 percent in Miami-Dade, where about 7,500 people filed for claims.

•  Job growth: Miami-Dade has recovered about 30 percent of the 91,000 jobs it lost during the recession. Broward hasn’t had as strong a recovery, earning back just 8 percent of the 90,500 payroll positions it lost. Still, employers have been adding positions throughout 2011 in both counties, thanks to a hiring rebound that began in the second half of 2010.

In all, the region has created about 33,000 jobs since employment bottomed out in early 2010. And in recent months, job growth hit between 3 and 4 percent in Broward and Miami-Dade.

“It looks like we may be picking up a little bit,’’ said Robert Cruz, Miami-Dade’s official economist.

Even so, Cruz sees 2012 as another year of slow growth that will leave South Florida feeling like it remains in the economic doldrums. With a likely recession in Europe and the political uncertainty brought on by a presidential election, Cruz predicts even strong numbers in December won’t last long.

This year “looks rough,’’ he said. “We might get some good news in the beginning. But I think overall the year is going to be slow.”

Bloomberg News contributed to this report.

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