And Havana must find the proper balance between a desire to increase revenue through taxation and not taxing so much that it squelches fledgling private businesses, said Peters.

While most analysts agree that economic reforms are too far along to be reversed, the rebuilding of the Cuban economy is definitely a work in progress.

“It does seem like the jury is still out on which of the changes will really take hold. I would characterize the process as slow, gradual and wait-and see,’’ said Piccone. “It’s very much an experiment as it goes along.’’

And as envisioned by Cuba’s aging leadership, the free-market changes aren’t designed to do away with Cuban communism but rather to ensure its survival after current leaders are gone.

It’s also a learning process for the new cuentapropistas who must deal with taxation, where to get their raw materials, competition and businesses that sometimes operate at a loss. “I think we’ll see a substantial portion that will fail but for natural reasons, such as oversupply of certain types of home-based businesses,’’ said Peters.

But one thing the reforms are doing is shifting people’s attitudes about their role in the economy. Their new ability to buy and sell homes and cars also is increasing their mobility to move across the country. Exiles’ monetary contributions to businesses being started by friends and relatives are giving them a stake in Cuba’s future economy, too.

At this point, where it will all lead and what political implications there might be remain unclear. But Peters said, “There is no doubt these changes are creating more independence for Cubans.’’

This is the second of two parts. The first — how Cuba loosened the handcuffs on commerce while remaining authoritarian as ever politically — appeared in Sunday’s Herald and can be seen at MiamiHerald.com/ cuba.