Last year 2011 was an epically bad year for authoritarian regimes, which suffered setbacks in the form of revolt by their populations and, in some cases, natural causes.

The Arab Spring brought the collapse of governments led by dictators in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya, the last culminating in Moammar Gadhafi’s death by “crossfire” after being plucked by rebels from the drainage ditch where he was cowering.

Leaders in Syria, Russia and elsewhere have been put on their heels by protests. And a heart attack that killed North Korea’s Kim Jong Il will hopefully advance the cause of freedom in that country as well.

Natural causes have also played a role in weakening authoritarian regimes in Latin America, with a cancer diagnosis for Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez casting serious doubt on his prospects for survival through presidential elections scheduled for October 2012. Those elections were expected to be competitive even before the cancer news broke.

After a series of surgeries and chemotherapy treatments, Chávez has appeared visibly swollen and frail and unable to deliver the marathon speeches that characterized his earlier leadership and vigorous campaign style. Even if he survives until the vote, his physical weakness will continue to undermine him politically.

It is in this context that politically divided Venezuela is likely to be among those global powder kegs set alight in 2012.

Chávez’s opponents sense opportunity to take leadership via the ballot box. Meanwhile, Chávez’s allies maneuver for a post-Chávez landscape, fearful of losing control over everything from cushy patronage positions to cocaine smuggling routes. Some elements are likely to resist a democratic process at all costs.

While 2012 may mark the end of Chavismo in Venezuela, it may not necessarily mark a return from authoritarianism.

The greatest opportunity for Chávez’s opponents arises from one of Chávez’s biggest leadership blunders — his failure to groom a successor, likely out of fear that he would be creating a rival.

Indeed, while Chávez has appointed a string of no fewer than seven vice presidents, who took their brief turn serving as Venezuela’s constitutional second-in-line, each was cast off into relative obscurity.

Venezuela’s current vice president, Elias Jaua, appointed by Chávez in 2010, is considered weak and a non-factor in Venezuelan politics. While he could briefly become president in the event Chávez is unable to serve, few believe he would be able to hold onto power. Infighting by Chávez allies to fill a power vacuum in his absence could present an opening for a democratic transition.

Events in Venezuela in 2012 are likely to spill over into other parts of the region. As the main benefactor of Latin America’s radical left, Chávez’s potential demise in the coming year would throw leftist governments in Cuba, Nicaragua and Bolivia into disarray, and would be a crippling blow to the FARC. All rely on Venezuelan largesse, and any interruption in the flow of Venezuelan oil, money and other resources would have devastating effects. This should be cause for some guarded optimism in the New Year.

Richard Brand, an attorney, is a former staff writer for The Miami Herald who reported on Venezuela from 2002 to 2004.