WHEN THE DOLPHINS RUN THE BALL

Reggie Bush turned heads and changed minds this year by becoming the team’s starting running back and rushing for 1,000 yards for the first time in his career. Everyone that said he’s too injury prone was silenced … until now. Bush will miss the game with a knee injury. That thrusts rookie Daniel Thomas, who has been injured sporadically this season, into carrying the Dolphins’ rushing game. Look for Lex Hilliard, typically a fullback and rarely a ball-carrier, to pick up the carries Thomas typically got as a change-of-pace back. For the Dolphins, the success or failure of the running game might not hinge on the running back but rather the players up front. The Miami offensive line is great at run blocking even as it is terrible at pass blocking. The Jets are excellent at exploiting teams that struggle with pass blocking.

WHEN THE DOLPHINS PASS THE BALL

This is going to stun, but the Dolphins have 38 pass plays of 25 or more yards this season and that is more than every NFL team except the Green Bay Packers. No, really. Brian Hartline has increasingly become the deep threat the team expected when he was made a starter, and Pro Bowler Brandon Marshall has averaged 15.3 yards per catch, his best average since he was a rookie and had only limited catches that helped keep his average high. Marshall vs. Darrelle Revis will again be a great matchup. If the Jets are expecting to see the same Matt Moore they saw in October, they’ll be surprised. He didn’t see open receivers that day. He was inaccurate and forced the ball. He sees the field better now and doesn’t force the ball nearly as much. He still suffers from inaccurate throws, however. Moore should watch for Calvin Pace, who dominated Marc Colombo in the last game with two sacks.

WHEN THE JETS RUN THE BALL

The Jets refuse to admit they must be, at their core, a running team to have success. With a possible playoff spot riding on the game, look for the team to take the responsibility for winning the game away from quarterback Mark Sanchez and put it on the running game, which in recent weeks against Kansas City and the Giants showed flashes of working well. Problem is the Dolphins are typically very good against the run. Karlos Dansby missed practically the entire week of practice because he was dealing with a death in his family, so even if he’s playing, one has to wonder where his mind will be. That’s not good for Miami’s defense up the gut. The Jets are no longer ground and pound. They passed 59 times last week. They’ll try to be more balanced this week, but the truth is their potentially most explosive back — Joe McKnight — gets the ball less than plodding workhorse Shonn Greene or aging LaDainian Tomlinson.

WHEN THE JETS PASS THE BALL

Here comes the dink-and-dunk, bootleg and throw-to-the-tight end gang. The Jets no longer pressure consistently with deep sideline routes because Plaxico Burress has no speed and Santonio Holmes isn’t strictly a speed receiver. This group works in 13-to-15-yard increments, which is fine, but not explosive. Dustin Keller is obviously the security blanket for Sanchez, and that’s good because the Dolphins traditionally struggle covering the tight end. In the red zone, Burress is New York’s biggest threat, literally and figuratively. Look for the Dolphins to match up with Sean Smith in those situations. The Dolphins must win here to win the game. And they can.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The Jets got a kickoff-return touchdown from McKnight earlier this season but that has been about as much noise as Mike Westhoff’s special teams have made this year. That is not acceptable for Westhoff, who expects his teams to make a difference in several games throughout the course of the season. Look for Westhoff to try something new, different, unorthodox, because he wants to be a factor in beating his old team.

COACHING

Rex Ryan is a gasbag. He basically skirted along the bounds of the NFL’s tampering rules this week by discussing the possibility of adding Peyton Manning next year. But he finds ways to find pressure on the passer through schemes. Todd Bowles isn’t such a scheme genius but he quietly has gotten his team to play close to its abilities the past two games. Question is, did Bowles learn from last week’s schooling at the hands of Bill Belichick? Because Ryan has at times been Belichick’s nemesis the past three seasons.