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LATIN AMERICA

What Hugo Chávez’s illness means for U.S., China

 

www.miami.edu/chp

China’s great hunger for Latin America’s resources and Hugo Chávez’s cancer are causing important geopolitical shifts in the Western Hemisphere, but along lines that neither China nor the Venezuelan president initially anticipated.

China had expected to continue increasing its influence in Latin America at the expense of that of the United States. Chávez also regarded the United States as a declining power in the Western Hemisphere and China, as a rising power. He believed that U.S. weakness would facilitate his efforts to become the dominant force in an increasingly anti-American region. Instead, Chávez’s illness has caused his ideological allies, most of whom belong to the Chávez-led ALBA group of countries, to begin hedging their bets by improving their damaged relationship with the United States.

Furthermore, the United States has begun to promote a Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which would ultimately link the Pacific Coast countries of the Western Hemisphere with those of the Asia-Pacific in order to increase Pacific Basin trade and security and help offset China’s influence in Asia and Latin America.

Prior to falling ill, the Venezuelan president had used his oil wealth to help elect and sustain a number of leftist presidents who had happily joined Chávez in challenging U.S. involvement in the region while supporting China’s growing influence there. Bolivia and Ecuador, as well as Venezuela itself, expelled their U.S. ambassadors. Ecuador also refused to renew the U.S. base in Manta, and Venezuela and Bolivia expelled U.S. drug enforcement agents from their countries. To varying degrees, they also pursued policies that challenged U.S. private investments in the region.

Chávez’s announcement that he had cancer caused his allies to conclude that if Chávez were to die, the chances were good that they would lose the economic aid they were receiving from him, as well as his protection, since it was unlikely that “chavismo” without Chávez would survive. It is not surprising, therefore, that as rumors of Chávez’s deteriorating health increased, Bolivia and Ecuador decided to once again exchange ambassadors with the United States.

Even if the rumors of Chávez’s rapidly declining health prove to be exaggerated, it is unlikely that the ALBA presidents will follow his lead as eagerly as they did before his illness. As a result, the potential for a more cooperative relationship between these countries and the United States is considerably better than it was before Chávez’s illness.

Washington also restored some of its lost influence in Latin America by finally approving the free-trade agreements with Colombia and Panama. A free-trade agreement with South Korea was also part of the package and constituted an important step in President Obama’s goal of expanding U.S. trade links with the Asia Pacific.

The South Korean agreement was followed shortly thereafter by President Obama’s eight-day trip around the Pacific Rim aimed at sending the message that the United States is a Pacific power that wants to expand its engagement with the countries of the region. Washington’s interest involves both economic and security concerns. It wants to expand U.S. trade with the region, as well as signal to China that it has to play fairly in the global economy. Washington also wants to send a message of reassurance to the Asian countries that the United States will not reduce its military presence in the Pacific during a period when China is flexing its military muscles.

Washington’s ultimate goal is to join and help expand the incipient Trans-Pacific Partnership. To date, the TPP includes Chile, New Zealand, Brunei, Singapore, the United States, Australia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Peru. Mexico, Canada, Japan and Colombia have expressed interest in joining.

These recent U.S. efforts to increase trade among countries on both sides of the Pacific Basin present Latin America’s Pacific coast countries with new opportunities to grow their economies, provided they take the necessary domestic steps to make their countries more economically competitive.

The decision of Chile, Peru, Colombia and Mexico to create the Alliance of the Pacific, which could become the largest economic bloc in the region, is a good step in this direction. Finally, both the Latin American and U.S. efforts represent a welcome attempt by North and South America’s Pacific coast countries to level the economic playing field with China, to the benefit of the Western Hemisphere as a whole.

Susan Kaufman Purcell is the director of the Center for Hemispheric Policy at the University of Miami.

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