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REDISTRICTING

House maps create more compact districts, some competition

 

Five similar proposals that emerged from the House redistricting committee expand minority districts, streamline boundaries and pit incumbents against each other.

How we arrived at the analysis:

From the Florida House’s redistricting site, MyDistrictBuilder.com, we downloaded 2008 and 2010 general election results and 2010 voter registration figures. As lawmakers released the maps, we sorted that data by each new district to determine where each incumbent lives and how each district has performed in recent elections. We focused on the 2008 presidential race between Barack Obama and John McCain and the 2010 governor’s race between Alex Sink and Rick Scott.


Herald/Times Tallahassee Bureau

If a goal of the proponents of the Fair Districts amendments was to make legislative seats more competitive and diverse, the House redistricting maps released this week may inch closer to that ideal.

The House staff created five different maps for redistricting the House of Representatives, each designed to keep county and city boundaries together.

In each of the maps, based on voter registration figures, 49 districts are solidly Republican, 33 are solidly Democratic and at least 21 districts could be considered swing districts. But voter registration doesn’t always determine who gets elected and, based on results of the 2008 and 2010 elections, there may be only 15 reliably swing seats, according to a Herald/Times analysis. Nevertheless, that’s a big shift from the current House, where 81 Republicans hold a super-majority over 39 Democrats.

Rep. Chris Dorworth, R-Lake Mary, chairman of the House Subcommittee on House Reapportionment, dismissed the calculations as part of lawmakers’ “duty” to follow the new law.

The Fair District amendments approved by voters in 2010 prohibit the lawmakers from protecting incumbents or parties and require them to draw compact districts when possible. In an attempt to adhere to the new standards, the five maps create more pleasing boundaries than Florida has seen in its legislative maps of the past and create 34 seats with no incumbent.

“You take an oath to preserve protect and preserve the Constitution of the state and we’ve done that,’’ Dorworth said. “That means that many of us are not going to live in the seats we had before and just because you feel like you should it doesn’t mean that you can.”

But the House’s well-intentioned design has also created some serious heartburn for incumbent legislators of both parties. According to a Herald/Times analysis, at least 24 incumbents are pitted against each other in the maps, including a three-way race in Miami that has three black lawmakers, all freshmen Democrats, in a potential face-off.

“This is like a baseball game and we’re in the middle of the second inning,’’ said Rep. Mack Bernard, a West Palm Beach Democrat. “We’re a long way from the ninth inning. We’ll get there by the end of session.”

None of these political numbers were included, however, in the data-heavy packets released by the House redistricting committee. The Herald/Times culled them from the House’s MyDistrictBuilder.com web site and the voter registration files that include home addresses of lawmakers.

Legislators in St. Petersburg, Broward and Miami were hardest hit by the new proposals. Because population in those regions has been stagnant or declined over the last decade, their political boundaries must expand.

In Miami Dade, Democrats Daphne Campbell, John Julien and Barbara Watson of Miami would all be forced into the new district 107. Reps. Elaine Schwartz and Perry Thurston, both Democrats, would be merged into District 99. And Republicans Eddy Gonzalez and Jose Oliva would be matched against each other in Hialeah District 110, while Jose Diaz and Ana Rivas Logan would be forced into District 116.

And in Broward, Democrats Joe Gibbons and Evan Jenne would be forced into District 100.

Staff Director Alex Kelly told members of the House redistricting committee on Thursday that they drew the maps with no knowledge of the political repercussions, except to consider whether the minority districts would effectively perform to elect a minority candidate. Preserving the voting strength of minority candidates was the primary goal of the redistricting, he said.

Each of the House maps creates two new minority districts: a Hispanic-majority district in the Orange County area of Kissimmee and another in Palm Beach County’s City of Palm Springs. Four of the maps create a new district intended to elect a black near the Orange County City of Eatonville.

But the maps also follow the pattern established in 1992 of creating meandering districts through black neighborhoods that also pack the districts with Democrats and blacks, thereby bleaching the surrounding communities. For example, each of the House maps includes black majority seats with Democrat registration of between 63 percent and 77 percent. Some Democrats argue, however, that those high numbers are not needed to elect a minority to office and point to a handful of existing district, such as Rep. Dwayne Taylor’s Daytona Beach seat, that has elected a black with just over 50 percent majority Democrat registration.

The House will take its first vote on the maps when legislators convene in an early special session on Jan. 10.

dealsaver
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