Democrats now control the Senate by 57-41, with two independents joining them when voting for Senate leadership and rules. Losing nine seats would leave the Democrats with 48 seats plus the two independents. Though evenly split with Republicans, Democrats would have the tie-breaking vote from Vice President Joe Biden to maintain control of committee chairs and the schedule.
Sabato noted that the Republicans have "an outside shot" at winning 10 seats and control, but said that a gain of eight or nine seats is more likely at this stage.
An important caveat: Some states still haven't held primaries, and those results could change the outlook. For example, Sabato now predicts that the Republicans will win the Delaware Senate seat once held by Biden and filled by a Democratic placeholder since then.
However, that prediction is based on the assumption that Rep. Michael Castle wins the Sept. 14 Republican primary. Sabato said that Castle's tea party-backed challenger, Christine O'Donnell, is ill suited to Delaware, and that if she managed to win the primary, the party would lose the seat in the Nov. 2 election.
Sabato also increased his forecast for Democratic losses in the governors' offices to eight, up from six or seven. That would shift the balance of power from a Democratic edge of 26 to 24 governors to a Republican advantage of 32-18.
That's important in each state, of course, and also has national implications, as the states next year start redrawing the boundaries of U.S. House districts in the wake of the 2010 Census, a process than can benefit the party that controls the maps. Governors also can be helpful to presidential candidates of their parties.
The loss of state legislature seats also would give Republicans control of eight to 10 additional state legislative chambers.
ON THE WEB
MORE FROM MCCLATCHY
Alaska's Murkowski concedes to tea party-backed Miller
Schwarzenegger tells California officials to halt hiring
One thing primaries proved: All politics is local
For more McClatchy politics coverage visit Planet Washington
RSS
My Yahoo