His double-digit lead in polls is based in part on his stands on local issues such as taxes and transportation. McDonnell also is tapping into strong anti-Washington sentiment among Republicans -- and perhaps independents. In a debate last week, for example, he struck out against the Obama-backed proposal for a federal "public option" health insurance program, saying he'd keep Virginia out of it if possible.
"I believe a governor needs to stand up to Washington," McDonnell said. "I will be a governor who will stand up and say, 'That's not good for Virginia.' My opponent and his Washington allies that want to raise taxes won't do that."
Susan Allen, whose husband, George, won the governor's office in 1993 in what was seen as a backlash against President Bill Clinton, said she sees familiar signs now.
"It's deja vu," she told the women's rally in McLean. "A lot of you were with us in '93, when a lot of people were concerned about what was going on in Washington. Guess what: We're back at the same crossroads again."
Polls suggest that Republicans are more passionate about turning out to vote this time, while Democrats show little enthusiasm, particularly among the young voters and African-Americans who surged to the polls in 2008 to back Obama.
McDonnell got a boost when Sheila Johnson, a co-founder of Black Entertainment Television and an Obama supporter in 2008, endorsed the Republican.
"This isn't about party. This is about policy and the person," she said in explaining her support for McDonnell.
"I supported Barack Obama. I stumped around North Carolina for him. I believed in his message. I believed he was the right man for the job."
Turnout always drops in non-presidential elections, but the lack of passion among Democrats and independents for Deeds is palpable.
He's a cautious candidate, criticized for appearing indecisive on key issues such as whether to raise taxes to improve the state's clogged road network.
He's also an awkward public speaker. At a recent appearance in Petersburg, he held a black binder in his hands as he spoke to a dozen or so people in the state's film industry, thumbing through the pages for points he wanted to make.
"I know he has good ideas, but he seems to be holding back at expressing them," said Daphne Reid, a filmmaker there.
Deeds also has tried to walk a fine line on Obama, welcoming his help raising money and boosting turnout, while distancing himself from some proposals that might not sell well in Virginia. He refused to endorse, for example, the proposed "public option" of federal health insurance as part of a health care overhaul.
"I don't think a public option is necessary in any plan, and I would certainly consider opting out if that were available to Virginia," Deeds said.
Facing a possible Democratic loss, Obama's advisers have started spinning background stories to friendly media in an effort to ensure that a Deeds defeat won't be blamed on Obama.
They told The Washington Post that Deeds refused critical advice from them and worked too hard to distance himself from Obama.
"I don't know what advice they're talking about," Deeds told McClatchy on Friday, insisting that Obama's pending campaign visit and $6 million in contributions from the Democratic National Committee signaled that the president was not ready to write off the Virginia race.
"The president's going to be here on Tuesday," Deeds said. "I don't think they're throwing me under the bus."
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