LAKE BUENA VISTA -- Florida Democratic activists rallied Saturday feeling more confident than they've felt in years of their chances of winning the governor's mansion with Alex Sink.

But asked about the Democrat whose name is likely to be on the tip-top of the 2010 ballot -- U.S. Senate candidate Kendrick Meek -- they are not so sure.

``I'm excited about Alex. I'm undecided about Kendrick,'' said Miami Democrat Barbara Schwartz, at the state party's annual convention at Disney's Yacht Club Resort. ``I don't know that he can beat Gov. (Charlie) Crist, so I'm still looking for a strong statewide candidate.''

The contrast is striking. Democrats are champing at the bit to see Sink, the state's chief financial officer, take on Republican Attorney General Bill McCollum, while the Miami congressman is still fighting the perception that he can't beat the sitting governor.

``I will tell you regardless of what you may hear, what they may say, what they may do in the future, we will win this race,'' Meek declared in a ballroom that had emptied out Saturday afternoon after a two-hour lineup of speakers.

The doubts about Meek -- coming at a time when the governor's Republican rival, Marco Rubio, is gaining ground -- were widespread enough to persuade former Miami Mayor Maurice Ferre to jump into the Democratic race last week. Most activists are skeptical of Ferre's chances but say his campaign shows Meek doesn't have the race locked down.

NO CERTAINTY

Former state senator Steve Geller of Hallandale Beach even speculated another Democratic candidate could emerge.

``Don't underestimate Kendrick. He's bright, and he's got crazy strong connections,'' Geller said. ``But it is no certainty that he will be the Democratic nominee, just as it is no certainty that Charlie Crist will be the Republican nominee.''

Ferre, who is Puerto Rican, sees potential appeal in the state's fast-growing Hispanic community and among Hispanic donors nationwide. Democratic pollster Dave Beattie said, ``The Republicans' worst nightmare is a Hispanic candidate for Senate.''

National political analysts rate Florida's open Senate race as a likely Republican win, largely because of Crist's high poll numbers and the absence of a Democratic candidate who is known throughout Florida.

``Charlie Crist is a successful politician who is very hard to run against,'' said Bob Goldstein, president of the Democrats of South Dade. ``Kendrick has a problem now with these other Democratic candidates potentially taking liberal votes away from him.''

Also in the Democratic race is U.S. Rep. Corrine Brown of Jacksonville and former North Miami Mayor Kevin Burns.

Meek's team dismissed questions about his Democratic challengers and his strength in a general election, pointing to an internal campaign poll they said showed Crist was beatable. The Feldman Group survey of 800 Florida voters in late September found 47 percent behind the governor and 31 percent for Meek. The margin of error was plus or minus four percent.

``The fact that the governor is below 50 percent before people have even had had a chance to learn who Congressman Meek is is extremely encouraging,'' said Meek's new manager Abe Dyk.

TOUGH ROAD

Broward Democratic state committeeman Mike Moskowitz said he thought a primary could help Meek raise his profile before the general election.

``Maurice is a good guy, but his time has come and gone,'' he said of the 74-year-old Ferre, who has lost his last three bids for office. ``Kendrick Meek is going to win the Democratic primary, and I don't think he'll have to spend significant resources to do it.''

Sink said she is staying out of the Senate race. State Rep. Luis Garcia of Miami Beach, one of the few Hispanic Democrats in the Capitol, said he had already endorsed Meek before Ferre got into the race.

``Ferre getting in neutralizes people like me,'' said Garcia, the party's former vice chairman. ``It puts prominent Democrats from Miami like me in an awkward position.''

Ferre came to Orlando with an entourage that included some prominent Democratic consultants: campaign manager Todd Wilder, who worked on Rod Smith's gubernatorial bid in 2006, and Nashville-based campaign strategist Bill Fletcher, who is also advising attorney general candidate Dave Aronberg.

``Maurice has got a tough road ahead, but Hispanic Democrats are excited,'' said Darren Soto, a Puerto Rican state lawmaker from the Orlando area. ``It's an interesting X factor.''

Beth Reinhard can be reached at breinhard@miamiherald.com.

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